Last week's Maven Letter had two portfolio suggestions. I recommended buying a gold explorer that just got drills turning on a never-before-drilled target that offers all kinds of prospective evidence. Then I suggested selling a small miner that has outperformed expectations and its peers, but where signs of changing momentum meant it was time to take our 300% gains and move on.
The editorial, included below, looked at the fear that pushed gold up through US$1,300 per oz. and the reasons why gold will likely fall back again before resuming its rally.
I hope you had a good Monday!
Rising on Fear (from Nov 2nd, 2016)
Gold just broke back up through US$1,300 per oz. The metal’s strength over the last few days shows gold doing its usual duty: acting as a safe haven.
And the needs for safety are many:
Those are some of the reasons to seek safety. The US election is another and the list goes on.
In this moment, it is easy to want to believe the gold rally of the last two weeks is the start of the next leg up, and I will admit that breaking up through US$1,300 per oz. is significant. However, do not underestimate the impact of the December Fed meeting.
Today we got further evidence that Janet Yellen will raise in December: in its November statement, the Federal Open Market Committee focused on job gains, rising household spending, and the idea that the economy is going to just keep chugging along. “The Committee judges that the case for an increase in the federal funds rate has continued to strengthen but decided, for the time being, to wait for some further evidence of continued progress towards its objectives.”
In other words: we couldn’t hike this close to the election (and nobody expected us to anyway) but we damn well will in December. Consider yourselves warned.
Gold will decline going into that meeting. Two weeks ago I said most gold corrections following a sharp gain are W shaped. The current lift is looking like the ascent to the middle peak. Another slide into the December rate meeting would take us down to the second low.
And then we will be good to go.
The W is playing out. I have several stocks to recommend before the gold market really goes again. Right now election uncertainty is driving scared investors into gold. That’s helping in the moment, but the fundamentals don’t care whether Donald or Hilary wins. Gold is set to go either way.
In her letter, Resource Maven explains what she is buying and selling, and why. Maven has bought into several of the markets best - performing stocks well ahead of the curve. She regularly identifies exciting new exploration opportunities and manages the inherent risk by selling some into speculative gains. And the mine builder and operator stocks that form the basis of the portfolio give strong, ongoing leverage to the rising prices of gold and silver. She has your precious metal bases covered.
The change is terrific for two reasons: it's current and concise. I suspect it really isn't that much harder for you to do since you always have opinions on the companies anyway. For me it provides current assessment without having to wait for an occasional update.... Another comment on your service is that you cover way more companies than I want to invest in but that provides me with a selection. I've always considered advisors as desperately needed filteres in the dog eat dog investment world. Keep up the good work
Thank you for the update. I am actually quite glad that you are flexible with your letters to enable you to get your readers the best information. And, I appreciate your offer to join the premium newsletter. I hope to continue to build my portfolio, with the help of your newsletter, to the point where I am able to take advantage of your offer and join the pp world in the not too distant future. I have really enjoyed your newsletter, read it with interest and have aligned my commodity portfolio with your recommendations, which has worked out very well. You are clearly a very trustworthy person, which is not always commone in the world of commodity investing. Thank yo for doing what you do so the small retail investor/speculator like me can have a better chance at success.