Tis the Season!
Seasonality is a real thing in the investment arena. Some annual market moves actually relate to the seasons, like natural gas prices rising in the heat of summer and freeze of winter as air conditioner and heater demand ramps up. Other seasonal moves have nothing to do with the weather – but are just as […]
Cheap Oil Good, Guatemala Bad, and Other Happenings
There is so much analysis out there that, the more one researches, the more confusing it can become. And just when you’ve got one aspect sorted – like the fact that gold bottomed on Nov. 5th – another seismic shift, like a tanking oil price, throws everything else around. That’s why it’s good to get […]
I’m Not A Gold Bug But… Part II
In my last missive I made the long-term gold argument. That’s great – but it’s easy to make claims without timelines. Sure, at some point in the future the US dollar will no longer dominate global trade. At some point it will be supplanted by a yuan backed by stacks of Chinese gold. As for […]
I’m Not A Gold Bug But… Part I
As a newcomer to this newsletter business, I face a conundrum. I believe in gold. I see gold adding several hundred dollars over 2015. In the longer term I believe the yellow metal will go significantly higher, propelled by its unique role as an intrinsic store of value and increasing constraints on its production. I […]
I’m Still Right
The emails started as soon as the Venture exchange dropped below 747 points on Friday. “Hate to say I told you so, but…!” “Three weeks – was that the rally you kept talking about?” “Sorry to see your first big call turn sour so soon…” You see, I had called Nov. 5th as the bottom […]
Real Risks and Siren Songs
Burkina Faso’s ousting of its 27-year dictator, endless labour strife in South Africa’s mines, power outages and mining code revisions in the Democratic Republic of Congo, tax increases in Zambia, Ebola in Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia – enough uncertainties arise in Africa in any given month to make the continent seem the riskiest place […]
Golden Pressures
When I called the bottom as having happened Nov. 5th, I got lots of feedback. I was called gutsy, bold, overly optimistic, naïve, and ballsy (my personal favorite), among other adjectives. Many wrote to me outlining all the deflationary pressures that will supposedly strengthen the greenback, stifle economic growth, and hold gold down. I disagree. […]
My Kind of Decoupling
The word ‘decouple’ is once again making the rounds. I like it – but my decoupling isn’t the same as most. Last time ‘decouple’ was popular was in 2009. It was applied to emerging markets, which investors hoped could keep running despite the global financial crisis. This time around people are hoping the US can […]
Hats off to Yellen
The Federal Reserve was not in an easy position. Anticipation of a rate raise by June, if not by April, had built to a frenzy leading up to today’s news conference. Consensus was that to not signal a move to higher rates would hurt confidence in the US economic recovery. Turns out the US economy […]
Selectivity and Patience
Amongst the blogs and articles making the resource rounds this weekend was a Globe and Mail article titled Big mining companies to take lead on Canadian prospecting. The idea: with juniors strapped for cash, it is major miners who are planning the most significant exploration programs in Canada this year. Goldcorp’s exploration spending is up […]