The Maven Letter: 21 December 2023
It’s been a tough year. But I think things might now be shifting. The Fed plans to cut rates several times next year. That removes the pressure that has stopped gold from gaining. Meanwhile, gold’s biggest support – central bank buying – continues unabated. It all creates potential for a good year in gold in 2024.
If rate cuts work and the economy starts expanding again without a recession first, investors could also start to care about base metals in 2024.
I write about all of that in today’s 2024 Outlook article, which also includes top picks for the year for gold, base metals, and uranium.
Silver Stock Investor: Mid-month Update December 2023
Bullish Gold is Silver Favourable Silver’s 2023, and outlook for 2024 Silver Technicals Portfolio Updates December 19, 2023 It’s almost Christmas and the full-blown holiday season. Admittedly, it also seems to be a full-blown flu/COVID/cold season! Let’s hope most of that plays out before the holidays, so we can gather and celebrate nonetheless. As we wind up 2023, it’s interesting to reflect back on the year. For me there are a few big standouts. First was the relatively contained banking crisis in late March; so far so good but I’m not convinced that’s over. Then we had the US dollar index peak at 107 in early October along with bond yields. By the way, both gold and silver bottomed at that same time. It now looks like the dollar has returned to a longer-term bear market. Since then, we’ve also had the markets build conviction that the Fed has reached the terminal rate and is all but officially done raising rates. The Israel-Hamas war helped to drive a spike in gold prices to $2,140 on Dec. 3rd before prices retreated. Gold dropped below $2,000 to $1,980 for only a couple of days before rallying back above $2,000. It’s now been […]
The Maven Letter: 13 December 2023
Thoughts on the Federal Reserve meeting. A new Dot Plot shows policy makers expect 3 to 4 rate cuts next year. That is vert important because it supported the Cuts Are Coming stance that has dominated markets – and moved gold – in the last few weeks.
The Maven Letter: 8 December 2023
Gold: A Move That Deserves Comment. Lots of portfolio updates – lots of drill results, a takeover, a partnership with a major, and a well-received financing.
Silver Stock Investor: December 2023
December 16, 2023 I spent three days last week in Zurich for the Swiss Mining Institute’s bi-annual in-person mining conference. The mood was decidedly upbeat, with silver and gold prices rising strongly, providing plenty of material to debate whether this was finally the real deal or not. Naturally, I returned home invigorated by the action in gold, silver and precious metals stocks, but also with a case of COVID! Not a huge surprise, I guess, after taking planes, trains, and mingling with a few hundred people all in just a few days. Thankfully, it seems to be a relatively mild case, so there’s that. ‘Tis the season! The highlight for me was participating in a discussion panel moderated by Claude Bejet of the Swiss Gold Letter. I was joined by industry heavyweights Tavi Costa of Crescat, David Finch of Ixios Asset Management, Daniel Schreck of Equinox Partners, and Chis Mancini of Gabelli Funds. We discussed the macro environment, what some of the triggers might be for a renewed precious metals bull, and whether this current strength was the start of a new and sustained upleg. The general consensus was that the Fed was at or near the end of its […]
The Maven Letter: 30 November 2023
Gold Besting $2000/oz – It IS Different This Time. Maven Buys: Abitibi Metals (CSE: AMQ). Portfolio Tables. Portfolio Updates: Alaska Energy, Azimut, Heliostar, Latitude Uranium, Montage, Nuclear Fuel, and Vizsla.
Evergreen Investing: November 2023
Decoding the Pause Political Commitments and Social Shifts in the Green Transition We started Evergreen Investing for one clear reason: climate change is one of the most disruptive economic forces of our lifetimes, a statement underpinned by the fact that 70% of countries representing almost 83% of global emissions and 80% of global population have committed to net zero by 2050. Dramatic changes in how things are made, moved, and used around the world will generate standout investment opportunities. Paradigm shifts always do (as we discussed in the October issue). But the green paradigm shift is currently stalled. High interest rates have suffocated capital-intensive green initiatives. Political backlash keeps impeding green directives in many places. And green investment hype five years ago pushed many green stocks sky high; they have since fallen a long way and it takes time for investors to re-engage when a sector sells off significantly. The selloff probably isn’t done. In a recent MLIV Pulse survey, Bloomberg asked investors whether they thought green stocks would fall further. What I want to discuss today is why we are so confident the green shift is paused, not stopped. It comes down to two things: political commitments and social […]
The Maven Letter: 23 November 2023
Two Charts. Uranium – Update and Actionable Insights. $200,000 Portfolio and Full Portfolio Table. Portfolio Updates from Alaska Energy, Azimut, Cascadia, Delta (sell), NexGen, Ridgeline, West Red Lake.
Maven Premium: Scout Minerals (private; going public 2024)
Financing opportunity for Premium subscribers: Scout Minerals
The Maven Letter: 16 November 2023
After encouraging caution on Hercules Silver’s (TSXV: BIG) porphyry discovery last week, this week I found ways to get closer to the story. After talking to several (very good porphyry specialist) geologists who have seen the drill core, my tune changed. I’m buying a half-size position at the open tomorrow. I’ll either sell or add to that after the next set of results, which might be drill holes or the IP survey. I explain my about-face to start this week’s letter. Then it’s time for some macro, after a week that saw bond yields plummet and stocks turn decisively higher again after October’s report showed inflation continuing to fall. There is no clear message out there, other than that rate hikes are done, which boosts gold’s chances. After the $200,000 Portfolio and the Full Portfolio Table, I assess news from Heliostar, Marathon (acquired!), Orezone, Sigma (costs beat!), Silvercrest (providing great leverage to silver), Sterling Metals (SELL), and West Red Lake. I will cover news from my uranium companies in the next issue, which will dive back into uranium. The spot price is running hard. —————————————————————————————— Maven Buys: Hercules Silver (TSXV: BIG) I was cautious on BIG last week. […]