This is a question that will take a bit of answering… I think the easiest way to answer is to break it down by stage, as you suggest.
Explorers: it’s all about the investment thesis and the results. Those divide into three broad categories:
Resource growth/developers: it’s about two things: catalysts and the market
Mine builders: this is the golden runway. In general, it makes sense to hold builders until first pour. PGM is a great example. Once the mine starts up the stock could keep rising but the risks of failure increase for sure (metallurgical issues, processing problems, rock competency challenges, debt walls, etc).
I haven’t given you ANY actual timelines, but that’s because there is simply nothing to say that applies across the spectrum of stocks in our sector. It’s all about what the investment premise is, how new data feeds into it, and how the stock has performed.
It’s SO easy to hold onto underperformers thinking a recovery is around the corner. It’s also so easy to hold onto outperforms, thinking there’s more coming. In both of these situations, it comes down to relative appreciation potential.
If your investment thesis pans out, what might the stock be worth? What is the risk it doesn’t work out? What other forces will impact the share price in the meantime (need to finance, free trade date from a financing a few months ago, seasonal restrictions on when they can work, etc)? And have you already gained or are you already down??
Consider those concepts and then think about whether you’d rather have your money in that stock or in another stock, perhaps one you just learned about that you really like. that’s what I mean by relative appreciation potential - would your capital have better odds of generating the kind of gains you seek in this stock or in another?
In her letter, Resource Maven explains what she is buying and selling, and why. Maven has bought into several of the markets best - performing stocks well ahead of the curve. She regularly identifies exciting new exploration opportunities and manages the inherent risk by selling some into speculative gains. And the mine builder and operator stocks that form the basis of the portfolio give strong, ongoing leverage to the rising prices of gold and silver. She has your precious metal bases covered.
Hi there, just a quick note to say how impressed I am with all the work you and your team do.
I started a few months back, and I'm sure in it for the long haul.
All the best
Thank you so much for this excellent Maven letter. Your market analysis and logic is again exceptional. Your insights, knowledge and feel have given me a wonderful couple of hours. I am now planning my activity. I look forward to seeing you tonight on the Virtual Metals forum, I am pleased that you start first as I am a morning not a night person.
I hope you and your family stay well.